North Korea’s conventional military, while large, is technologically outdated compared to the US and South Korea. In the medium term, all these tests – both of missiles and potentially nukes – also serve the regime security of the Kim family. It seems to have doubled down on a coercive diplomacy strategy – bludgeoning South Korea, Japan, and the US with so many missile tests, and possibly a nuclear test, that the three allies feel compelled to make concessions to avoid escalation. The Biden administration has indicated a willingness to talk with North Korea, but Pyongyang has rejected that. With the failure of negotiations, the North likely reckons that another way to break the economic cordon around it is to punish the US and other sanctioning states with tests and threats. He offered Trump very little though at Hanoi in 2019 – and Trump turned down the deal.
When former president Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Kim’s primary goal was to lift sanctions. The North may be seeking to refocus US attention on itself, because the US has led crippling sanctions against Pyongyang, which it desperately wants rolled back. The administration of US President Joseph Biden has devoted little effort to North Korea – unlike his predecessor Donald Trump. The missile tests came as international players were preoccupied with domestic events, with the US gearing up for the Nov 8 midterm elections and China holding a major party congress in October. It is possible that the North wishes to remind us that it is still relevant, a potential spoiler which demands attention and respect. South Korea has also inaugurated a new conservative president who is far more hawkish on the North than his predecessor, which could have provoked more robust tests this round. These traditionally activate a North Korean response the North calls the drills practice for an invasion. First, the US and South Korea are conducting major military exercises at the moment. Much of the debate has turned to why North Korea has suddenly accelerated its testing schedule. In a joint press conference on Nov 3, the US secretary of defence and the South Korean foreign minister declared that North Korean nuclear weapon use would lead to the regime’s destruction. The missile tests over the past few weeks have been of multiple ranges, from short-range, regionally intended weapons, to heavy, intercontinental ballistic missiles for striking the United States. One landed off the coast of South Korea for the first time. On Nov 2, it fired at least 23 missiles into the sea, the most it had fired in a day. BUSAN: North Korea’s pattern of missile tests this year has been aggressive and relentless.
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